Good Morning Traders
Its a lovely sunny day here in Dublin this morning, and the weather is beginning to heat up coming into June just like the markets. Yesterday we saw another down day for most of the global equity markets lead by the overnight decline in the Nikkei 225, this selling pressure continued throughout the European session and into the US session. We did see a slight rally after the European close however we are back trading in the red again this morning.
It looks like the market has run out of steam, it has come a long way in a very short period of time off the back of poor fundamentals. Let's not forget this market has been driven by central bank intervention and promises, not strong core fundamentals. The market is unsure what direction it wants to go, and it will inevitably come down to Bernanke and when he might taper his current easing policy. Its a funny predicament because surely a reduction in the level of QE would signal that the economy is improving and making a step in the right direction, however as soon as those words come out of his mouth expect to see traders, investors, mutual funds, pension funds and other large institutions close equity positions.
However that is all down the line and in more relevant terms, the market looks tired to me, I think we will find it hard to make new highs unless we have some really good data today or the US jobless claims are really poor tomorrow. If the jobs number comes in worse than expected it will be seen that QE will be around for longer than a better than expected number so bear that in mind.
In terms of today I expect to see markets quiet as everyone will be keeping an eye out for tomorrows number, I will be adopting the 'Sell any rally' approach as I don't believe that this market can go higher without a new catalyst, and the longer that the market remains up here without making new highs it signals to me that this could be a market top.
Happy Trading
@lowkeycapital
Thursday, 30 May 2013
Wednesday, 29 May 2013
Morning Update
Good Morning,
A strong rally Yesterday in Japanese Stocks gave European Stocks a strong day closing near Year to date highs but once Europe closed the American bourses started to go south and have continued lower overnight, now nearly 200 points off the highs of yesterday. It's dangerous to call a top but we now have a technical double top in place on the American Equity Markets and with some fundamental uncertainty around the markets at the moment it looks a perfect time to take some profit for the first 5 months of the year and re-assess.
Price action still trades above a rising 4 hour trendline dating back to the middle of April and firmly above its 200 Period Moving Average. Buyers will still be found at these levels but a loss of the 200 Day MA and a Close of the candle below here could signal further declines and might see a lot of Bulls re-thinking their long positions.
EURUSD price action looks sluggish after re-testing and failing at its 50% retracement of its decline from 1.37 to 1.275. Looking at the Euro from a fundamental perspective we may see more easing in the coming months as the ECB are the only Central Bank with more available ammunition to weaken their currency in the hope of providing additional stimulus and growth potential. With the U.S. economy improving and hints of an exit from their Quantitative Easing program it may cause a broad Dollar rally against all Pairs which would cause a significant decline in this pair towards the 1.20 mark or lower.
However the Euro has proved to one of the most resilient currencies throughout the past few years and any adversity has always seen it rally back and with the Market being heavily short any form of good news or U.S. negative Data may cause an epic short squeeze in this pair where traders exciting short positions and speculators going long causes the price action to be squeezed higher. For an uptrend to be confirmed a break of the downward sloping trendline from February must be breached. On the other hand a break of 1.2750 would almost definitely open up a test of 1.20 in the coming months.
A strong rally Yesterday in Japanese Stocks gave European Stocks a strong day closing near Year to date highs but once Europe closed the American bourses started to go south and have continued lower overnight, now nearly 200 points off the highs of yesterday. It's dangerous to call a top but we now have a technical double top in place on the American Equity Markets and with some fundamental uncertainty around the markets at the moment it looks a perfect time to take some profit for the first 5 months of the year and re-assess.
Price action still trades above a rising 4 hour trendline dating back to the middle of April and firmly above its 200 Period Moving Average. Buyers will still be found at these levels but a loss of the 200 Day MA and a Close of the candle below here could signal further declines and might see a lot of Bulls re-thinking their long positions.
EURUSD price action looks sluggish after re-testing and failing at its 50% retracement of its decline from 1.37 to 1.275. Looking at the Euro from a fundamental perspective we may see more easing in the coming months as the ECB are the only Central Bank with more available ammunition to weaken their currency in the hope of providing additional stimulus and growth potential. With the U.S. economy improving and hints of an exit from their Quantitative Easing program it may cause a broad Dollar rally against all Pairs which would cause a significant decline in this pair towards the 1.20 mark or lower.
However the Euro has proved to one of the most resilient currencies throughout the past few years and any adversity has always seen it rally back and with the Market being heavily short any form of good news or U.S. negative Data may cause an epic short squeeze in this pair where traders exciting short positions and speculators going long causes the price action to be squeezed higher. For an uptrend to be confirmed a break of the downward sloping trendline from February must be breached. On the other hand a break of 1.2750 would almost definitely open up a test of 1.20 in the coming months.
Tuesday, 28 May 2013
DOW JONES 30 4 hour chart
The U.S. Equity Markets reversed sharply last Wednesday from some Hawkish FOMC Minutes. The mention of tapering (cutting back on Quantitative Easing) caused a big sell off from all time Intra-Day highs.
However the Dip has been bought and we are now looking to challenge or take out these highs again.
Looking at this 4 Hour chart, you can clearly see a rising 4 touch trendline from the previous dip during late April. All and all the price action looks very bullish even though their is a lot of chatter about a potential correction coming during the summer. We firmly believe a buy and dips strategy still is the best play until their is some significant fundamental news to cause investors to sell into this market. Also a breach of this trendline at around 15300 Spot would unvalidate the uptrend and look like a potential topping pattern.
Near term support can be found at the different Fibonacci retracement levels on the way down.
However the Dip has been bought and we are now looking to challenge or take out these highs again.
Looking at this 4 Hour chart, you can clearly see a rising 4 touch trendline from the previous dip during late April. All and all the price action looks very bullish even though their is a lot of chatter about a potential correction coming during the summer. We firmly believe a buy and dips strategy still is the best play until their is some significant fundamental news to cause investors to sell into this market. Also a breach of this trendline at around 15300 Spot would unvalidate the uptrend and look like a potential topping pattern.
Near term support can be found at the different Fibonacci retracement levels on the way down.
CAUTION
Investors Beware
The global markets over the course of the last couple of weeks have performed exceptionally well for investors and traders alike with significant gains and new record highs in the majority of the main indices. We have see a rotation from the underperforming into the riskier equity markets as investors look to take advantage of the recent gains. There was a slight shock to the system last week when we saw the Japanese (Nikkei 225), fall over 7% in one single trading session, which caused a slight tremor throughout the global equity markets.
Let me recap on what has happened over the recent months; accommodative central bank policy from the worlds largest banks (BOE, ECB, FED, BOJ) has helped drive equity markets higher. The process is quite simple the governments print more money through a variety of measures, in an effort to stimulate the economy and in turn stock prices follow suit. I however do believe that this aggressive approach will cause significant consequences in the long run as economies become dependant on these capital injections to stay alive. The markets have become obsessed on this phenonium of QE and any sign that the level of QE may be reduced, taper or even halted will undoubtedly cause a significant market sell off and a return to safe haven asset classes.
Investors are by nature greedy individuals to a large extend and everyone wants to be involved in the big swings and earning the big returns. However in a lot of cases this is how most retail investors get very badly burned. We all remember back in 2006/2007, when every dog on the street, every newspaper headline was telling people to invest in stocks, and then what happened?. As investors you have to be aware of what the big money is doing and the way they are thinking, by the time the ordinary individual is buying these markets looking to catch a part of the big move and own the same stock as their next door neighbour who has been making $$$$$$, these guys are selling the market. Unfortunately this is the truth and it is a cut-throat environment and if you leave yourself vulnerable you will be cleaned out and the market won't look back.
On a more positive note, we have seen some exceptional gains in global equity markets and anyone who was fortunate enough to take part in this rally will have a smile on their face, but just don’t become complacent. If you are happy with the gains that you have made to date it may be time to take some money off the table and wait for the next opportunity to arise. A common mistake made by average investors is that they enter trades with no plan, no exit strategy. They begin to make nice gains and they are happy to sit back and watch the money pile up, and low and behold a significant market turning event happens and all the good gains have been wipped out in the space of a few days.
I have made a list of a few of the things that I will be paying close attention to over the next few days/ weeks that will help me stay ahead of the crowd and not get stung if a market correction takes place;
- Can we come back and test the previous highs we made in the equity markets over the last few weeks. Most importantly the S&P 500.
- Keep an eye on the price of safe havens such as gold and government bonds, usually a good indication as to the market sentiment.
- Keep an eye on all central bank meetings and press conferences, levels of QE will be discussed and these will be significant market events.
- The longer we stay at these levels and don't continue on the road higher, the more likely we are to have a correction in the market.
- Have a plan and know what you want from your investment, if you haven’t made a plan make one now don’t let the market come in and eat up all your gains.
Thursday, 23 May 2013
Nikkei 225
Yesterday's 7% Drop on the Nikkei 225 was the biggest one day loss since the Tsunami and the Nuclear Meltdown of 2011, its only the 10th time in 50 Years that the Stock Market has suffered a 7% loss and was down nearly 2000 points from High to Low at one stage.
On a monthly chart dating back to 1999 you can see a perfect technical reversal off a downtrend line starting 13 years ago. Analysts may Call this a coincidence that poor fundamental data matched perfectly to a technical reversal at a key technical level at the same time but it sets a near term top in place.
Monthly charts are what long term investors look at and we can guarantee a lot will be looking at this very chart wondering is this the end of the Nikkei rally that at one stage yesterday was up 84% in the last 6 months.
Just something to keep in mind when taking the long Japan trade (Long Nikkei, Short JPY).
On a monthly chart dating back to 1999 you can see a perfect technical reversal off a downtrend line starting 13 years ago. Analysts may Call this a coincidence that poor fundamental data matched perfectly to a technical reversal at a key technical level at the same time but it sets a near term top in place.
Monthly charts are what long term investors look at and we can guarantee a lot will be looking at this very chart wondering is this the end of the Nikkei rally that at one stage yesterday was up 84% in the last 6 months.
Just something to keep in mind when taking the long Japan trade (Long Nikkei, Short JPY).
Correction...Correction...Correction
Good Morning Traders... we are faced with markets that we haven't seen act like this in months, its unusual to wake up and see markets open in the red and by this extent. It may be too early to call a definite market top but it has all the hallmarks. The market initially made a dash for the moon only to retrace off the back of Bernanke's outlook on QE, to me he didn't say anything unexpected but I think the thought of the day when Bernanke may implement a tapering of QE scared the markets.
We saw some significant moves into the US afternoon session and this selling pressure became aggressive when the Asian markets opened, at the time of writing the Nekkei Index is down 1099 points equilivant to 7% in one trading session. We have to take a step back and have a look at the fundamentals of the market and the psychology behind these big swings, yesterday may have been the start of a correction phase or it might be a small speed bump in the road higher we will have to wait and see.
The longer that this uncertainty continues in the market the more likely we are to see money taken off the table, don't forget we have come a long way over the last few months and nobody wants to see their gains wiped out over the course of a few trading sessions.
One thing that I would be looking at now, would be the safe heaven assets such as gold and bonds. We could see a rotation from the equity markets as investors look for a new safe home for the short term.
Happy Trading
@lowkeycapital
Good Morning Traders... we are faced with markets that we haven't seen act like this in months, its unusual to wake up and see markets open in the red and by this extent. It may be too early to call a definite market top but it has all the hallmarks. The market initially made a dash for the moon only to retrace off the back of Bernanke's outlook on QE, to me he didn't say anything unexpected but I think the thought of the day when Bernanke may implement a tapering of QE scared the markets.
We saw some significant moves into the US afternoon session and this selling pressure became aggressive when the Asian markets opened, at the time of writing the Nekkei Index is down 1099 points equilivant to 7% in one trading session. We have to take a step back and have a look at the fundamentals of the market and the psychology behind these big swings, yesterday may have been the start of a correction phase or it might be a small speed bump in the road higher we will have to wait and see.
The longer that this uncertainty continues in the market the more likely we are to see money taken off the table, don't forget we have come a long way over the last few months and nobody wants to see their gains wiped out over the course of a few trading sessions.
One thing that I would be looking at now, would be the safe heaven assets such as gold and bonds. We could see a rotation from the equity markets as investors look for a new safe home for the short term.
Happy Trading
@lowkeycapital
Wednesday, 22 May 2013
Breakfast Blog
Good Morning,
Big Risk event from the across the pond today in the form of Ben Bernanke's testimony on the American Economy and the future Asset Purchases the Federal Reserve plans to make. Many analysts are calling for a tapering of purchases because of the Stronger American Economy however their is one thing you can always rely on and that is for Ben Bernanke to be uber dovish. He is not called "Helicopter Ben" for nothing. Refering to his printing press of money in the form of the Federal Reserve.
We can not see this being a stock negative event, whatever he says will likely be taken as bullish by the Stock Market. If he suggests a tapering in Q4 2013, it shows the Economy is stronger and more resilient. This will cause a flow out of Safe-haven assets (Gold, CHF, JPY) and into stocks. While reference to continuating accomodating monetary policy will further inflate Asset prices.
This morning should be quiet with all eyes on the 3 P.M. speech from Bernanke. Just as i type the EUR/JPY has reached a three and a half year high in the pair and has broken the 133 Handle. This was under 100 at the start of November. USD/JPY remains well bid at 102.8 Spot. The Nikkei 225 put on another 2% over night and sits at 15712, up over 6000 points YTD and accelerating . This index has gone parabolic and may continue its upward trajectory into Japanese earnings season as most companies are expected to report solid earnings in wake of the weaker JPY currency and the positive effects it has seen on its exporters.
Euro was the leading currency yesterday and has continued its gains this morning. Making gains against the Pound, Dollar and Yen. The catalyst behind the Euro move yesterday was the break of 0.85 to the upside in EUR/GBP pair which was a downward sloping trendline and proved to be a major break out level supporting the Euro in nearly all its crosses.
Sterling weakened heavily against most pairs yesterday as the monthly CPI came in weaker then expected, leaving Mark Carney the incoming Governor with some additional leverage to print when he arrives into the Bank of England next month. Selling Sterling looks a solid fundamental trade for the coming months as technically it has broken through some big levels against Euro and against the Dollar and the FTSE is certainly pricing in more easing as it broke 6800 yesterday with analysts as Cityindex expecting to see 7250 before the end of 2013.
Good luck in the Markets today
Lowkey
Big Risk event from the across the pond today in the form of Ben Bernanke's testimony on the American Economy and the future Asset Purchases the Federal Reserve plans to make. Many analysts are calling for a tapering of purchases because of the Stronger American Economy however their is one thing you can always rely on and that is for Ben Bernanke to be uber dovish. He is not called "Helicopter Ben" for nothing. Refering to his printing press of money in the form of the Federal Reserve.
We can not see this being a stock negative event, whatever he says will likely be taken as bullish by the Stock Market. If he suggests a tapering in Q4 2013, it shows the Economy is stronger and more resilient. This will cause a flow out of Safe-haven assets (Gold, CHF, JPY) and into stocks. While reference to continuating accomodating monetary policy will further inflate Asset prices.
This morning should be quiet with all eyes on the 3 P.M. speech from Bernanke. Just as i type the EUR/JPY has reached a three and a half year high in the pair and has broken the 133 Handle. This was under 100 at the start of November. USD/JPY remains well bid at 102.8 Spot. The Nikkei 225 put on another 2% over night and sits at 15712, up over 6000 points YTD and accelerating . This index has gone parabolic and may continue its upward trajectory into Japanese earnings season as most companies are expected to report solid earnings in wake of the weaker JPY currency and the positive effects it has seen on its exporters.
Euro was the leading currency yesterday and has continued its gains this morning. Making gains against the Pound, Dollar and Yen. The catalyst behind the Euro move yesterday was the break of 0.85 to the upside in EUR/GBP pair which was a downward sloping trendline and proved to be a major break out level supporting the Euro in nearly all its crosses.
Sterling weakened heavily against most pairs yesterday as the monthly CPI came in weaker then expected, leaving Mark Carney the incoming Governor with some additional leverage to print when he arrives into the Bank of England next month. Selling Sterling looks a solid fundamental trade for the coming months as technically it has broken through some big levels against Euro and against the Dollar and the FTSE is certainly pricing in more easing as it broke 6800 yesterday with analysts as Cityindex expecting to see 7250 before the end of 2013.
Good luck in the Markets today
Lowkey
Tuesday, 21 May 2013
Good Morning Traders
We arrive back to the markets this morning to see things shaping up as they have been for the last number of weeks. Yesterday we saw another strong performance in both European and US equity markets. We saw new highs marked for the SPX and the Dow however comments from Fed member Evans took the sting out of the rally as he indicated that we might see a slight tapering of QE towards the end of the year, and it it this QE news that has the ability to dictate market direction. All traders and investors will be looking towards Bernanke for a clear indication as to the future of the FED's level of intervention.
We will adopt the same trading principles that we have been implementing for the last few weeks, as this market wants to move higher. We expect to see the marker remain relatively quiet ahead of Bernanke tomorrow and we might see a few cautious traders take some money off the table in-case we see some indication that QE may be coming to an end expect to see a drastic move to the downside if this is the outcome. However I believe that the data is far from strong enough to tamper the current level and if the data continues to improve and the unemployment rate drop it may be a sign to ease the existing levels.
However that's tomorrow, as far as today is concerned, any dip is a genuine buying opportunity but I would be looking to close some positions ahead of the FED press conference tomorrow. Elsewhere in the markets the EURUSD pair continues to come under pressure as Dollar strength is dominating the core of the FX market. USDJPY trades at 132.250 handle off its high of 133.
Happy Trading
@lowkeycapital
We arrive back to the markets this morning to see things shaping up as they have been for the last number of weeks. Yesterday we saw another strong performance in both European and US equity markets. We saw new highs marked for the SPX and the Dow however comments from Fed member Evans took the sting out of the rally as he indicated that we might see a slight tapering of QE towards the end of the year, and it it this QE news that has the ability to dictate market direction. All traders and investors will be looking towards Bernanke for a clear indication as to the future of the FED's level of intervention.
We will adopt the same trading principles that we have been implementing for the last few weeks, as this market wants to move higher. We expect to see the marker remain relatively quiet ahead of Bernanke tomorrow and we might see a few cautious traders take some money off the table in-case we see some indication that QE may be coming to an end expect to see a drastic move to the downside if this is the outcome. However I believe that the data is far from strong enough to tamper the current level and if the data continues to improve and the unemployment rate drop it may be a sign to ease the existing levels.
However that's tomorrow, as far as today is concerned, any dip is a genuine buying opportunity but I would be looking to close some positions ahead of the FED press conference tomorrow. Elsewhere in the markets the EURUSD pair continues to come under pressure as Dollar strength is dominating the core of the FX market. USDJPY trades at 132.250 handle off its high of 133.
Happy Trading
@lowkeycapital
Monday, 20 May 2013
Apple Turnaround
There has been a lot of talk of the decline of Apple's share price from its $706 high back in September. We have seen increased speculation that large fund managers have been reducing their exposure to the stock as it continues to lag behind the rest of the equity markets. However I think that we might be seeing the formation of a bottom. Let me explain this;
We can see the fall of the stock from its peak at $706 to its low of $387, the down trend over this period is obvious to the naked eye and it was a great trading opportunity for shorting the stock adopting the 'Selling any rally' mentality. What has caught my eye over the last few months is the H&S reversal formation that is forming. This can be seen graphically by the points A-B-C. As we all know this is one of the most respected reversal formations, and it could signal the bottom of the stock if we see a move from point C to point D.
However there is a slight case for concern, we have seen the significant rally in global equity markets and Apple has failed to take part in this significant move. We have the Dow & SPX making new historic highs while Apple is a long way off this mark. It is interesting to note that Apple has become uncorrelated to the SPX and I think this trend might continue over the next months.
Apple has always been a strong performing stock and it has generated significant returns for investors, a large portion of these investors have opted to lock in some profit, and rotate money into alternative sectors in search of gains. I believe that when the market does begin to correct over the coming weeks, months we will see money move back into Apple. The second half of the year will be characterised by new Apple products and services that will inevitably stimulate consumer and investor confidence and should help to see a significant move to the upside in the stock price.
Apple in my opinion could be the new VIX....
Happy Trading
@lowkeycapital
We can see the fall of the stock from its peak at $706 to its low of $387, the down trend over this period is obvious to the naked eye and it was a great trading opportunity for shorting the stock adopting the 'Selling any rally' mentality. What has caught my eye over the last few months is the H&S reversal formation that is forming. This can be seen graphically by the points A-B-C. As we all know this is one of the most respected reversal formations, and it could signal the bottom of the stock if we see a move from point C to point D.
However there is a slight case for concern, we have seen the significant rally in global equity markets and Apple has failed to take part in this significant move. We have the Dow & SPX making new historic highs while Apple is a long way off this mark. It is interesting to note that Apple has become uncorrelated to the SPX and I think this trend might continue over the next months.
Apple has always been a strong performing stock and it has generated significant returns for investors, a large portion of these investors have opted to lock in some profit, and rotate money into alternative sectors in search of gains. I believe that when the market does begin to correct over the coming weeks, months we will see money move back into Apple. The second half of the year will be characterised by new Apple products and services that will inevitably stimulate consumer and investor confidence and should help to see a significant move to the upside in the stock price.
Apple in my opinion could be the new VIX....
Happy Trading
@lowkeycapital
Breakfast Blog
Good Morning,
Early Monday has seen a huge Gap down in the precious Metals complex with Gold gapping lower by over $30 and silver by nearly $1. The rotation looks set to continue with Stocks opening higher in Europe with the Dax, Ibex and FTSE MIB all showing gains in early morning cash trading.
Over the weekend North Korea fired three short range missiles into the sea off the Eastern Coast of the Korean Peninsula, stirring tensions that had appeared to ease in the wake of a recent series of threats directed at South Korea and the U.S. We also saw the Japanese Economy Minister Amari stating that the correction of the Strong JPY was largely completed and if it kept weakening more it would have a negative impact on people's lives. He also stated that the Stock rise had been faster then expected.
This caused an immediate strengthening of the Yen currency in early Monday Morning trade where liquidity was thin but the Market has since bounced back and we sit at 102.6 in the USDJPY pair and at 132 in the EURJPY pair.
Today is very quiet on the Data calendar so expect a range bound trading session, while traders wait for Existing Homes sales Data later in the week along with Minutes from the FOMC along with Speeches from Bernanke and Mario Draghi. We will post Currency order levels later int he session.
Good luck in the Markets.
Lowkey
Friday, 17 May 2013
Breakfast Blog
The Mother of all Bull Markets,
The Rally in the Japanese Nikkei 225 since Abe won the election has been
remarkable and its accelerating!! Since mid-November, the index is up an astonishing 67% and it tacked on another 4.3% in the past two days. This index has gone parabolic! Do not try a pick a top on this!!
The index reached 20000 in 2000 and topped at 18000 before the Financial Crisis.
At 15,172 spot as i Type, a monthly downtrend line comes in at 16200 but when any instrument turns parabolic its best ignoring technicals and going with the fundamentals and as long as the Yen keeps weakening the Market will go higher and 18000 or higher could be in play by year end!
The Rally in the Japanese Nikkei 225 since Abe won the election has been
remarkable and its accelerating!! Since mid-November, the index is up an astonishing 67% and it tacked on another 4.3% in the past two days. This index has gone parabolic! Do not try a pick a top on this!!
The index reached 20000 in 2000 and topped at 18000 before the Financial Crisis.
At 15,172 spot as i Type, a monthly downtrend line comes in at 16200 but when any instrument turns parabolic its best ignoring technicals and going with the fundamentals and as long as the Yen keeps weakening the Market will go higher and 18000 or higher could be in play by year end!
Good Morning Traders
Things look relatively quiet in today's morning session, we have seen no major moves worth nothing. Yesterday of you followed our advice you would have made some profit as the 'Buy The Dips' mentality played out again after the initial sell off at the US market open. We saw new highs on the DowJ and the SPX but these levels didn't last to long and the equity market sold off into the US close.
For me personally I always pay close attention to what happens in and around the closing bell, as it shows to me the trading mentality of traders and market makers, are they happy to hold positions overnight or are they quick to cash in and take profit. In this instance it looked to be the the latter, and this is something that I use to gauge market sentiment amongst traders.
In the FX market we have seen the EURUSD pair come under pressure as it trades down at 1.28600. There is a 'Death cross' forming on the daily chart and if this cross follows its usual path we could see the Euro come under serious pressure making a move lower testing the previous lows around the 1.26-1.20 handle and don't forget any indication of a reduction in QE form the US or increased rate cuts from the ECB will support this move.
Happy Trading
@lowkeycapital
Things look relatively quiet in today's morning session, we have seen no major moves worth nothing. Yesterday of you followed our advice you would have made some profit as the 'Buy The Dips' mentality played out again after the initial sell off at the US market open. We saw new highs on the DowJ and the SPX but these levels didn't last to long and the equity market sold off into the US close.
For me personally I always pay close attention to what happens in and around the closing bell, as it shows to me the trading mentality of traders and market makers, are they happy to hold positions overnight or are they quick to cash in and take profit. In this instance it looked to be the the latter, and this is something that I use to gauge market sentiment amongst traders.
In the FX market we have seen the EURUSD pair come under pressure as it trades down at 1.28600. There is a 'Death cross' forming on the daily chart and if this cross follows its usual path we could see the Euro come under serious pressure making a move lower testing the previous lows around the 1.26-1.20 handle and don't forget any indication of a reduction in QE form the US or increased rate cuts from the ECB will support this move.
Happy Trading
@lowkeycapital
Thursday, 16 May 2013
Good Morning Traders
Rotation...Rotation...Rotation
We have continued to see the strength of this bull market after yesterdays impressive gains in the European and US equity markets. The market was taking a breather for the last couple of days, and yesterdays strong rally highlighted the fact that this market wants to continue making higher highs. There is only one way to play the market and that is 'Buy the dips', although people are reluctant to enter the market at these levels, they are providing excellent returns for day traders in the short term. It is simply one way traffic, and it is an unusual market at the moment, all bad news is being disregarded and markets continue to move higher, I put this down to two significant reasons, and unless one or more of these change expect to see higher highs;
Rotation...Rotation...Rotation
We have continued to see the strength of this bull market after yesterdays impressive gains in the European and US equity markets. The market was taking a breather for the last couple of days, and yesterdays strong rally highlighted the fact that this market wants to continue making higher highs. There is only one way to play the market and that is 'Buy the dips', although people are reluctant to enter the market at these levels, they are providing excellent returns for day traders in the short term. It is simply one way traffic, and it is an unusual market at the moment, all bad news is being disregarded and markets continue to move higher, I put this down to two significant reasons, and unless one or more of these change expect to see higher highs;
- The 'Great Rotation'; As touched on in previous blogs, we are seeing significant money move from the struggling commodity markets into the equity markets. Gold has fallen below $1400 and currently trades around the $1384 handle. Silver has fallen as low as $22 and I would be reluctant to take on a position in either good. The bond market is also struggling, and it is simple all money is being moved to the equity markets as central banks continue to fuel returns.
- Central Bank Policy; Central banks across the globe led by the FED, BOJ, BOE and BOJ continue to adopt a 'whatever it takes approach' and will continue to fuel this rally until their objectives have been met. It is quite clear to traders and investors that the returns they are seeing from their policies is not as high as expected and they are a long way from achieving their targets. So I would be firm is my belief that I do not expect to see a reduction or tapering of bond buying in the short term.
We are expecting to see some significant data from the EU this morning in the form of inflation data due out at 10am, we are looking for a headline figure of 1.2%, for FX traders this should bring significant volatility into the EUR currency markets. A figure below this expectation will bring some significant downside to the EURUSD pair and it would being the 1.2750 low into play. Elsewhere in the FX markets the BOJ continue to push the USDJPY pair higher as it tests the 102.50 handle, and we expect to see this strong trend continue as long as the BOJ keep their foot on the pedal.
In conclusion, keep the same strategy in place, it is not often that markets can be as predictable as they are at present so use this as as opportunity to take advantage of the moves and keep stops tight.
Happy Trading
@lowkeycapital
Wednesday, 15 May 2013
Breakfast Blog
Good Morning,
Yesterday was a continuation in the Trend we have seen for the last weeki.e. Another day, another Day of Dollar Strength. We saw Higher Growth expectations from some Tier 1 Bank's capitulated in Cycle highs for USD against JPY, AUD and CHF. We also obviously saw a fresh cycle high, YTD high and All time high of 1650 in the S&P 500. Tuesday's in the Stock Market this year have been incredible, This combined with a POMO day (Day when Fed injects Liquidity) and some upbeat comments from Fund Manager David Tepper on his long equity positions caused a rally all day with 1% being put onto all American Indices and seeing the Nasdaq Break 3000 for the First time since 2000 even though Apple slipped in late trade to close under 450 at 443.
Looking at the Market in General, the Break of 100 in USDJPY has caused Japanese investors to pile their money into Dollars and American Equities, This is causing a huge flow dynamic which is weakening the Yen aggressively and adding fuel to the Equity markets. This will likely continue as long as the Yen continues to weaken. As I mentioned the Dollar has been gaining traction in the last 5 Trading sessions from some upbeat growth comments and strong Data, This has seen the Dollar gain back 300 Pips on the Euro, 300 against Sterling and nearly 400 against the Yen. Yet the Equity Markets still believe that Quantitative Easing will continue and our being pushed higher daily on low volume.
Equity Markets going higher on low volume is technically called a negative divergence and is a warning sign of a reversal, but as they say "trend is your friend" and buying any dips is the only play until their is a significant Fundamental Development that may cause the Markets to sell off. The only development this could be is a story, rumour or announcement of the Fed's intentions to Stop/reduce/taper Asset Purchases.
The EURUSD made a strong reversal at 1.32 last week and now finds itself below the 1.29 handle. How things change quick? I even saw a few analysts chatting about parity again this morning. Poor ZEW data from Germany yesterday has probably made the Market think about Additional cuts or Stimulus for the Single Currency combined with the Dollar Strength story it has been a steep decline for the Euro throughout the past few trading sessions.
Today we saw Poor Geman GDP data which pushed the Euro out of its 1.29-1.32 range and a daily close below here would give case for further declines towards the Yearly Low of 1.2745 and potentially further on a breach of that level.
Base Metals and Commodities in general continue to have a dismissal year with slowing Chinese Growth, slowing demand and Dollar Strength combined with a rotational issue into Equities it has seen Metals especially suffer huge losses. Gold Broke down out of its 1440-1480 range on Friday and trades at 1410 spot in Current trade, still looking heavy. One of the Main reasons I believe base metals have been hammered so hard this year is because of the Drop in inflation, Let me explain what I mean by this.
Ever since Central Banks started their Easing programs and flooded World Markets with liquidity and easy credit their was an expectation that Inflation would take off and be above 2% in all major Economic zone's. This has not been the Case at all, Inflation has declined in the States and in the Eurozone. Investors bidded up the Prices of Commodities in times of inflation as a place to protect the value of their money. This is especially true with Gold. Gold is traded as a currency and a direct hedge against Inflation. Since Inflation has not happened even though their is Trillions of printed money in the system The relative value of Gold must drop because it has no Intrinsic Value like Stocks that provide value and revenue streams for the investors. As long as the Inflation rate remains subdued, Gold will suffer further declines.
Good look in the Markets
Lowkey
Yesterday was a continuation in the Trend we have seen for the last weeki.e. Another day, another Day of Dollar Strength. We saw Higher Growth expectations from some Tier 1 Bank's capitulated in Cycle highs for USD against JPY, AUD and CHF. We also obviously saw a fresh cycle high, YTD high and All time high of 1650 in the S&P 500. Tuesday's in the Stock Market this year have been incredible, This combined with a POMO day (Day when Fed injects Liquidity) and some upbeat comments from Fund Manager David Tepper on his long equity positions caused a rally all day with 1% being put onto all American Indices and seeing the Nasdaq Break 3000 for the First time since 2000 even though Apple slipped in late trade to close under 450 at 443.
Looking at the Market in General, the Break of 100 in USDJPY has caused Japanese investors to pile their money into Dollars and American Equities, This is causing a huge flow dynamic which is weakening the Yen aggressively and adding fuel to the Equity markets. This will likely continue as long as the Yen continues to weaken. As I mentioned the Dollar has been gaining traction in the last 5 Trading sessions from some upbeat growth comments and strong Data, This has seen the Dollar gain back 300 Pips on the Euro, 300 against Sterling and nearly 400 against the Yen. Yet the Equity Markets still believe that Quantitative Easing will continue and our being pushed higher daily on low volume.
Equity Markets going higher on low volume is technically called a negative divergence and is a warning sign of a reversal, but as they say "trend is your friend" and buying any dips is the only play until their is a significant Fundamental Development that may cause the Markets to sell off. The only development this could be is a story, rumour or announcement of the Fed's intentions to Stop/reduce/taper Asset Purchases.
The EURUSD made a strong reversal at 1.32 last week and now finds itself below the 1.29 handle. How things change quick? I even saw a few analysts chatting about parity again this morning. Poor ZEW data from Germany yesterday has probably made the Market think about Additional cuts or Stimulus for the Single Currency combined with the Dollar Strength story it has been a steep decline for the Euro throughout the past few trading sessions.
Today we saw Poor Geman GDP data which pushed the Euro out of its 1.29-1.32 range and a daily close below here would give case for further declines towards the Yearly Low of 1.2745 and potentially further on a breach of that level.
Base Metals and Commodities in general continue to have a dismissal year with slowing Chinese Growth, slowing demand and Dollar Strength combined with a rotational issue into Equities it has seen Metals especially suffer huge losses. Gold Broke down out of its 1440-1480 range on Friday and trades at 1410 spot in Current trade, still looking heavy. One of the Main reasons I believe base metals have been hammered so hard this year is because of the Drop in inflation, Let me explain what I mean by this.
Ever since Central Banks started their Easing programs and flooded World Markets with liquidity and easy credit their was an expectation that Inflation would take off and be above 2% in all major Economic zone's. This has not been the Case at all, Inflation has declined in the States and in the Eurozone. Investors bidded up the Prices of Commodities in times of inflation as a place to protect the value of their money. This is especially true with Gold. Gold is traded as a currency and a direct hedge against Inflation. Since Inflation has not happened even though their is Trillions of printed money in the system The relative value of Gold must drop because it has no Intrinsic Value like Stocks that provide value and revenue streams for the investors. As long as the Inflation rate remains subdued, Gold will suffer further declines.
Good look in the Markets
Lowkey
Tuesday, 14 May 2013
SP500 4 HR
You can see a clearly defined uptrend on this 4 hour S&P 500 chart. The price action has become wedged in a rising channel between 1620 and 1636. A rising wedge or channel is generally a bearish technical warning combined with a bearish engulfing candle that is forming over this timeframe the market looks to be turning lower. A reverse and a break to the downside of the 1620 area could expose the 1612 level which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 1537-1636. An additional break of this would then target the psychological 1600 level then 1597 which is a previous high and the 38.2% Fibo of the rally up.
1597 is definitely a level a lot of Bulls will be looking to take a speculative long trade at.
Good Morning Traders.
Global equity markets seem to be hanging on the edge of a cliff as we speak. In the last few trading days the aggressive nature of the prevailing up trend has lost its explosive power but it continues to remain range bound at these high levels. We are seeking new highs being made in the US equity markets but there has been a lack of persistent follow through which will give both bulls and bears something to speak about.
The markets as a whole seem to be confined to these tight ranges and the lack of important economic headlines should keep us in these ranges unless we hear something unexpected.
The interesting story over the last few days that caught the attention of the market was the Wall St journal article which highlighted the FED's map to taper their monetary easing policy (QE) toward the end of 2013. This headlined caused a minor pull back in the equity markets only to be quickly bought up again. As we mentioned in a blog last week, the European session continues to lack volume and they have been selling the market and we have seen the american market participants come into the market and give strong support.
Levels for me today are as follows: EURUSD 1.3040 / 1.2940, S&P 1620 / 1636, DowJ 15070 / 15,110
In conclusion we have a bit of economic data from the Eurozone this morning in the form of German ZEW and Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator which should give direction to the market. We expect to see a German reading below expectation due to the recent leg lower in the DAX but want for the headline don't speculate. I would be sticking to the philosophy of buying any dips unless we see something drastic in the market.
Happy Trading
Global equity markets seem to be hanging on the edge of a cliff as we speak. In the last few trading days the aggressive nature of the prevailing up trend has lost its explosive power but it continues to remain range bound at these high levels. We are seeking new highs being made in the US equity markets but there has been a lack of persistent follow through which will give both bulls and bears something to speak about.
The markets as a whole seem to be confined to these tight ranges and the lack of important economic headlines should keep us in these ranges unless we hear something unexpected.
The interesting story over the last few days that caught the attention of the market was the Wall St journal article which highlighted the FED's map to taper their monetary easing policy (QE) toward the end of 2013. This headlined caused a minor pull back in the equity markets only to be quickly bought up again. As we mentioned in a blog last week, the European session continues to lack volume and they have been selling the market and we have seen the american market participants come into the market and give strong support.
Levels for me today are as follows: EURUSD 1.3040 / 1.2940, S&P 1620 / 1636, DowJ 15070 / 15,110
In conclusion we have a bit of economic data from the Eurozone this morning in the form of German ZEW and Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator which should give direction to the market. We expect to see a German reading below expectation due to the recent leg lower in the DAX but want for the headline don't speculate. I would be sticking to the philosophy of buying any dips unless we see something drastic in the market.
Happy Trading
Monday, 13 May 2013
Breakfast Blog
Good Morning Traders,
A quiet start to the week with no Tier 1 Data from Europe this morning with Traders awaiting the Retail Sales Data from the States at 13 30 this afternoon.
Thursday and Friday were two days completely dominated by Dollar Strength. We saw the USD/JPY push from below 99 to nearly 102 in just two trading sessions. Strong U.S. Data combined with a rumour that FED watcher John Hilsenrath's weekend articles had a direct interview with a member of the FOMC and a detailed plan about the FED's exit strategy proved a catalyst for Dollar Strength with a number of significant levels being breached. These included 1.30 to the downside in the EUR/USD pair, parity in the AUD/USD pair, 100 to the upside in USD/JPY and the break of the narrow trading channel in spot Gold. This was a break of the 1440-1480 range, where we broke to the downside before recovering with a low print seen at 1419 on Friday, we trade at 1431 Spot as I type.
Over the Summer Months one of the Markets main risk events will be how the Fed plans to reduce/halt/continue/increase its Asset Purchase program as the Markets have become petrified that their training wheels could potentially be removed in Q4 of this year. Even on Thursday afternoon a rumour that John Hilsenrath's weekend press contained details of a Fed exit strategy from its current program caused a 60 point drop in the Dow Jones before it rallied back after the close of U.S. trading. This clearly shows the Market is overly long and looking for any reason to short the market. Trading Equity Indices in this current climate involves no knowledge of Company Performance, technical skills or Analysis. The Market simply revolves around Central Bank policy and nothing else and this evidently won't stop until Bernanke or Yellen or whoever chairs the Printing Press starts to draw out the Liquidity in the System causing a huge Stock Market Crash and hopefully resetting the Market in a more rational and transparent mind set.
The Move over 100 in the USD/JPY confirms that the Market believes in Kuroda and his easing Policies and bid to beat deflation once and for all. With Japanese nationals now Net buyers of Foreign Bonds compared to Domestic Bonds it saw the JGB Market being halted on Friday as the Yield grows so small as Japanese Investors are forced out of the Country with their Capital in a bid to Find a 3% or greater Yield for their Money. This is the point that the Yen may start to weaken significantly when Wealth from Japanese citizens is forced into Europe and The United States. If we see more Data supporting the outflow of Jaonese Wealth over the coming weeks and months we may see 1.20 in the Pair before the End of the Summer.
The EUR/USD pair has been constrained between the 200 DAY MA at 1.29 and 1.32 topside. The Market thinks that the Big Panda (Asian Central Bank) has a large DNT (do not touch) Option in play here and is playing the ranges with big money on both sides. The play here is to go with a daily close under or over these parameters or simply trade at extremes of this 300 Pip Range.
We will have some order levels up later once America wakes up.
Good Luck in the Markets. Lowkey
A quiet start to the week with no Tier 1 Data from Europe this morning with Traders awaiting the Retail Sales Data from the States at 13 30 this afternoon.
Thursday and Friday were two days completely dominated by Dollar Strength. We saw the USD/JPY push from below 99 to nearly 102 in just two trading sessions. Strong U.S. Data combined with a rumour that FED watcher John Hilsenrath's weekend articles had a direct interview with a member of the FOMC and a detailed plan about the FED's exit strategy proved a catalyst for Dollar Strength with a number of significant levels being breached. These included 1.30 to the downside in the EUR/USD pair, parity in the AUD/USD pair, 100 to the upside in USD/JPY and the break of the narrow trading channel in spot Gold. This was a break of the 1440-1480 range, where we broke to the downside before recovering with a low print seen at 1419 on Friday, we trade at 1431 Spot as I type.
Over the Summer Months one of the Markets main risk events will be how the Fed plans to reduce/halt/continue/increase its Asset Purchase program as the Markets have become petrified that their training wheels could potentially be removed in Q4 of this year. Even on Thursday afternoon a rumour that John Hilsenrath's weekend press contained details of a Fed exit strategy from its current program caused a 60 point drop in the Dow Jones before it rallied back after the close of U.S. trading. This clearly shows the Market is overly long and looking for any reason to short the market. Trading Equity Indices in this current climate involves no knowledge of Company Performance, technical skills or Analysis. The Market simply revolves around Central Bank policy and nothing else and this evidently won't stop until Bernanke or Yellen or whoever chairs the Printing Press starts to draw out the Liquidity in the System causing a huge Stock Market Crash and hopefully resetting the Market in a more rational and transparent mind set.
The Move over 100 in the USD/JPY confirms that the Market believes in Kuroda and his easing Policies and bid to beat deflation once and for all. With Japanese nationals now Net buyers of Foreign Bonds compared to Domestic Bonds it saw the JGB Market being halted on Friday as the Yield grows so small as Japanese Investors are forced out of the Country with their Capital in a bid to Find a 3% or greater Yield for their Money. This is the point that the Yen may start to weaken significantly when Wealth from Japanese citizens is forced into Europe and The United States. If we see more Data supporting the outflow of Jaonese Wealth over the coming weeks and months we may see 1.20 in the Pair before the End of the Summer.
The EUR/USD pair has been constrained between the 200 DAY MA at 1.29 and 1.32 topside. The Market thinks that the Big Panda (Asian Central Bank) has a large DNT (do not touch) Option in play here and is playing the ranges with big money on both sides. The play here is to go with a daily close under or over these parameters or simply trade at extremes of this 300 Pip Range.
We will have some order levels up later once America wakes up.
Good Luck in the Markets. Lowkey
Friday, 10 May 2013
Good Morning Traders
We have seen continued support of this aggressive rally and long may it continue. The trading psychology has been simple, buy any dips as the market is being bought at every given opportunity as retail investors look to get aboard this move. Depending on your trading strategy, I would remain cautious for investors entering at these levels with a long term hold view, in my opinion these levels favour short term day trading strategies with a daily or weekly time-frame in mind. As long as these markets are being supported by accommodative central bank policy these markets can only move higher, the stock markets have become totally un correlated with the health of the global economy. The markets disregards poor economic data and it looks that the only thing that will be able to make them turn around is the speculation of reduced central bank policy.
Yesterday we had some good job numbers from the US, although small the economy is taking a small step in the right direction. The main move we saw off the back of this news was strength in the USD against some of its major currency pairs. One interesting thing to note was the fact that the USD/JPY pair broke through the psychological 100 level, a level it had been testing for the last few weeks. As it is Friday and we have had another strong week with gains across the board we would expect to see some small profit taking across the board towards the close of the US session.
As mentioned in previously blogs this strong equity performance can be attributed to the fact that other asset classes continue to produce negative gains. Money has been taken out of both Gold and Bonds as investors look to cash in on the recent move in the equity market. That is why I don't see any correction in sigh unless we see some substantial news that will force individuals to sit on the sidelines.
Happy Trading
@lowkeycapital
We have seen continued support of this aggressive rally and long may it continue. The trading psychology has been simple, buy any dips as the market is being bought at every given opportunity as retail investors look to get aboard this move. Depending on your trading strategy, I would remain cautious for investors entering at these levels with a long term hold view, in my opinion these levels favour short term day trading strategies with a daily or weekly time-frame in mind. As long as these markets are being supported by accommodative central bank policy these markets can only move higher, the stock markets have become totally un correlated with the health of the global economy. The markets disregards poor economic data and it looks that the only thing that will be able to make them turn around is the speculation of reduced central bank policy.
Yesterday we had some good job numbers from the US, although small the economy is taking a small step in the right direction. The main move we saw off the back of this news was strength in the USD against some of its major currency pairs. One interesting thing to note was the fact that the USD/JPY pair broke through the psychological 100 level, a level it had been testing for the last few weeks. As it is Friday and we have had another strong week with gains across the board we would expect to see some small profit taking across the board towards the close of the US session.
As mentioned in previously blogs this strong equity performance can be attributed to the fact that other asset classes continue to produce negative gains. Money has been taken out of both Gold and Bonds as investors look to cash in on the recent move in the equity market. That is why I don't see any correction in sigh unless we see some substantial news that will force individuals to sit on the sidelines.
Happy Trading
@lowkeycapital
Tuesday, 7 May 2013
Good Morning Traders
We are all back in the office this morning after the extended bank holiday weekend and we have al European markets open for trading. It is amazing to reflect back on last week as we saw the SPX make new historic highs and this was re-enforced by a strong close above the 1600 level. So we ask ourselves where to next? There has been a lot of speculation that we might see a 5-10% correction across some of the equity markets, as some analysts have called for some profit taking coming into the month of May, but the 'Sell in May and go away' ideology may be a thing of the past. It was normally seen as a time when traders would leave the office in May to attend summer events and take a break from the market after locking in some nice first quarter profits but with the advances in technology traders can access the markets through a variety of mediums (Laptop, Ipad, Iphone) so I think this may be a thing of the past and I would take it with a pinch of salt.
The current environment is dominated by low interest rates and central bank aggressive easing policies and this is being reflected in the equity markets across the globe. In sort the SPX trades over the 1615 level, the Dow trades above the 14070 level, the Dax 8130 all of these levels in extreme over bought levels signalled by the RSI indicator. But there is nothing we can do and it is not a wise move to be fighting the central banks and their whatever it takes attitude. We saw last week that the ECB reduced interest rates by .25% in an effort to stimulate the Eurozone, and it was hinted that they would be keen to reduce interest rates going forward if things don't improve. This market will remain in a strong up-trend unless we get some significant news headlines, and as of yet there is nothing in sight to cause a turn around so expect to see markets move higher. Also take note that poor headline data will not be enough to trigger this correction it will in fact be seen as a catalyst for more easing or a reduction in interest rates so we will be faced with the 'Bad news is good news' scenario for the coming months.
In terms of the FX market all of the easing measures adopted by central banks should be negative for domestic currencies, but with all economies taking this approach the effects may be slightly diluted and not as drastic as previously expected.
In conclusion these are very unusual trading times and volatility is widespread across all asset classes, we have seen some of the safe heavens such as gold and silver react in a volatile manor, which has caused a rotation into the equity markets as investors hunt for gains. If there is one bit of advice I can give you, don't fight the central banks and don't look for a top in this market regardless if you feel that the market is too high, buy the dips as we continue to move higher.
@lowKeyCapital
We are all back in the office this morning after the extended bank holiday weekend and we have al European markets open for trading. It is amazing to reflect back on last week as we saw the SPX make new historic highs and this was re-enforced by a strong close above the 1600 level. So we ask ourselves where to next? There has been a lot of speculation that we might see a 5-10% correction across some of the equity markets, as some analysts have called for some profit taking coming into the month of May, but the 'Sell in May and go away' ideology may be a thing of the past. It was normally seen as a time when traders would leave the office in May to attend summer events and take a break from the market after locking in some nice first quarter profits but with the advances in technology traders can access the markets through a variety of mediums (Laptop, Ipad, Iphone) so I think this may be a thing of the past and I would take it with a pinch of salt.
The current environment is dominated by low interest rates and central bank aggressive easing policies and this is being reflected in the equity markets across the globe. In sort the SPX trades over the 1615 level, the Dow trades above the 14070 level, the Dax 8130 all of these levels in extreme over bought levels signalled by the RSI indicator. But there is nothing we can do and it is not a wise move to be fighting the central banks and their whatever it takes attitude. We saw last week that the ECB reduced interest rates by .25% in an effort to stimulate the Eurozone, and it was hinted that they would be keen to reduce interest rates going forward if things don't improve. This market will remain in a strong up-trend unless we get some significant news headlines, and as of yet there is nothing in sight to cause a turn around so expect to see markets move higher. Also take note that poor headline data will not be enough to trigger this correction it will in fact be seen as a catalyst for more easing or a reduction in interest rates so we will be faced with the 'Bad news is good news' scenario for the coming months.
In terms of the FX market all of the easing measures adopted by central banks should be negative for domestic currencies, but with all economies taking this approach the effects may be slightly diluted and not as drastic as previously expected.
In conclusion these are very unusual trading times and volatility is widespread across all asset classes, we have seen some of the safe heavens such as gold and silver react in a volatile manor, which has caused a rotation into the equity markets as investors hunt for gains. If there is one bit of advice I can give you, don't fight the central banks and don't look for a top in this market regardless if you feel that the market is too high, buy the dips as we continue to move higher.
@lowKeyCapital
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