Friday, 22 March 2013

Morning Update


Good Morning, 
                        Another day of Market Turmoil driven by rumours and rhetoric from every party involved in the Cyprus saga. Yesterday morning saw the release of some Eurozone data in the form of the Manufacturing and Services PMI's. These came in very poorly with France and Germany missing their estimates. This saw the EUR/USD take a leg lower towards the 200 Day Moving Average, the area around 1.28800 is extremely well supported but the bounces are getting shallower and at this rate some more bad developments from Cyprus may have the ammunition to take it out. Expect heavy stop loss selling on a break  of this level. On Wednesday night we mentioned a potential trade selling EUR/JPY at 124.3. I hope some of you listened as you would have bagged 230 pips by this stage. The developments in Cyprus have caused the Yen to strengthen significantly against all currencies as traders are using the Yen as a safe haven. Along with an uninspiring speech from Kuroda and the end of Financial year repatriation in Japan we have seen a heavy sell off in EUR/JPY and USD/JPY. 
EUR/JPY sits at the 122 handle as i type and USD/JPY at 94.50 just ahead of some large bids.
GBP/USD couldn't add to its strong retail sales results yesteday and sold off with Risk as yesterday progressed. Cable bounced to its first daily fibonacci retracement at 1.5209 and sold off perfectly after this. This was the 23.6% retracement of the drop from 1.6377 to 1.4844 and was always going to be sold on the first touch of this important resistance. This morning cable is approaching the 1.52 handle again and some Dollar weakness may give it a boost in the short term and a break of 1.521 will allow cable to get to 1.54330 fairly quickly as it is only fresh air between these two levels. 
Quite a quiet day on the Economic calendar, we see the release of the German business expectations for March at 9 GMT and the details of the LTRO repayments at 11 GMT. A strong reading may give the Euro a bounce but the market is revolving around Cyrus so expect it to be short lived. 
The S&P 500 had a big down day yesterday closing at 1546, trades at 1544 as I type having been as low as 1541 in overnight trade. It has been stuck in a range between 1538 and 1563, and a break of 1538 would open up 1530 and 1519 on the downside. 
These markets are extremely choppy and working off news and rumours so we would advise stops to be kept very tight as the swings are extremely volatile. Find well supported area's and take a position accordingly. 
Good luck in the Markets and enjoy your weekend.
Lowkey

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