Thursday, 25 April 2013

Breakfast Blog

Good Morning Traders,
                                     A lively week so far in the Markets, which has seen Europe adopt the "bad news is good" policy towards its Equity Markets. Poor German Manufacturing and Services Data was followed by a weak IFO Business Climate report Yesterday, which surely should have been negative for the Euro and for all European indexes, but instead we got a massive rally on the hope that the ECB will provide more accomodative policy and either cut interest rates or provide some sort of quantitative easing program to support the single currency. As I type now the German Dax is 350 points higher then it was this time on Tuesday Morning, with the Spanish Ibex and the Italian FTSE MIB realising similar gains.
The ECB's monthly meeting is next Thursday and the chance of a rate cut this soon is quite unlikely with only a handful of analysts predicting the cut to come next week, a more likely scenario would be a cut at the June meeting which would give the ECB time to analyse the Economic data before making a decision. I would expect some very dovish rhetoric from Mario Draghi next Thursday which may in itself help reduce the Exchange rate of the currency even though they claim this is not a mandate for them.
American Data has been very soft this week and is also helping to support EURUSD price action, this is also helping to support the American Equity Indexes aswell because with bad news they have the promise of never ending Quantitiative Easing. Today we see the release of the weekly Initial Jobless claims, which is the only tier 1 data from the States today with tomorrow's big Q1 GDP number on every traders mind.
Some good levels to look out for in the EURUSD pair is 1.3080 topside as a big resistance level and 1.30 downside. Looking at the S&P 500, 1576 is a previous high and there is not much in the from of resistance now until 1600, so any bullish data may see the market return to this level quickly.
Best of luck in the Markets.

Tuesday, 23 April 2013

European Morning Review

Good Morning Traders
We are coming to you slightly later than usual this morning as we decided to wait for the heavy news flow out of the EU to pass before writing the blog.
This week we have got off to a slow start, and we seem to be still hovering around this levels stuck in a tight range. There has been repeated speculation that this may be the top of the equity markets both here in Europe and across the water in the US but we have failed to breach our short term resistance levels for this play to be confirmed. This mornings news-flow can be seen summarised below;

  • French Services PMI 44.1 vs 42
  • French Manufacturing PMI 44.4 vs 44.3
  • German Manufacturing PMI 47.9 vs 49
  • German Services PMI 49.2 vs 51
  • Eurozone Services PMI 46.6 vs 46.6
  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 46.5 vs 46.8
The morning started off on a positive note as the French figures beat analysts expectations, however early gains were wiped away as the German data was at its lowest level since 2009. The Eurozone figures came in broadly in line with analysts expectations. In between all of this we had hints on the newswires that the ECB may in fact be stepping closer to cutting interest rates off the back of the relatively weak data. As we know this would be positive for the European equity markets and be negative for the Euro currency against its major pairs.
We have seen the European equity markets move back to session lows and the US equity futures are trading in the negative. We will remain cautious over the next few hours as any further hints in relation to a rate cut could cause a significant move to the upside. At the time of writing the EURUSD is trading below its significant 1.30 handle.

One of the big headlines today is the Apple Q1 results due our after the closing bell of the US session. Analysts are expecting a lower figure and earnings per share to fall slightly year on year. If its a big miss we could see the US equity indices lose some significant ground in after hour trading.

Happy Trading 

Thursday, 18 April 2013

Morning Update

Good Morning,
                        An incredible weak of volatility for all asset classes; European and American Stocks, Commodities, Currencies and the lowest T note yield registered since 2013. 
Last Friday Gold breached a very important technical level at 1525, which was a weekly triple bottom. The break of this level started a wave of heavy volume selling, together with rumours of leveraged funds being margin called caused a complete commodity sell off with Silver, Copper and Oil getting in on the act. Gold reached a bottom at 1324 on Monday evening where it bottomed, important support comes in at 1301, and a break of this level will inevitably lead to further declines. Looking at the Equity Markets, The German Dax broke through the 100 day moving average yesterday on Rumours of a German Sovereign downgrade. This downgrade came in the form of a small ratings agency called Egan Jones. The Dax lost over 200 points yesterday, closing below 7500. Strong support comes in for the Dax around the 7450 level (previous highs) and at 7365(200 Day MA). 
The S&P 500 has been correcting heavily this week after making new all time highs last week and nearly reaching the 1600 level. It broke through intermediate trendline support at 1557 and reached lows of 1542. Important support comes in at 1537 which is a double bottom and the March lows. A break of this level will lead too a deeper correction towards 1500. 
EUR/USD had a 200 pip rally on the back of bad news on Tuesday and then sold off 200 pips yesterday on the back of comments from ECB's Jens Wiedmann opening the door to potential rate cuts either in May or June, The negative sentiment in the Markets also added to the Euro's sell off, Giving the Yen some strength as traders moved money to the safe haven of the Japanese Currency. 
American T-Notes also printed a 2013 record low yield at 1.67% as rumours of black box selling of E-Mini contracts and a Buy program of US Ten Year's was noted on Tuesday. Pimco's Bill Gross also came out stating he liked treasuries at these levels. This would lead us to believe that the Equity Market will likely correct sooner rather then later as Investors will put money into Defensive stocks and Bonds until they can Buy the Equity Market back at more attractive levels.
An altogether extremely volatile week for a number of reasons. We believe there will be a lack of direction in all Instuments for the coming weeks, so price action will likely be up and down with big swings in the Equity Market. Best option is to enter the Market with an open mind everyday and take a position on the basis of the Mood of the market and at the extreme's of the range that will likely prove strong Support or Resistance levels.
Good Luck in the Markets.

Friday, 12 April 2013

Good Morning Traders
We have seen a solid week of gains for all the bulls out there with European stocks posting their biggest four day gain since early January. Across the water the US equity market has continued to make new historic heights and previous highs are now acting as support levels as we test these new levels. In yesterdays US trading session we saw initial Jobless claims falling more than previously estimated by analysts. The important thing we need to look at now is the next move and what we expect to see during today's trading session. I think today could be seen as a great opportunity for bulls to take some money off the table and lock in some gains ahead of the two day Ecofin meeting extension starting today. This meeting amongst European finance leaders should be treated with caution by traders as the agenda includes; bailout extensions for Portugal and Ireland, the ballooning Cypriot bailout and the issue of Slovenia is sure to raise an element of uncertainty.
Already this morning we have seen a lower open across the board, and I would expect to see this direction hold throughout the days trading session.
In terms of the FX markets the EUR has struggled overnight coming off its highs against some of the major pairs. The EURUSD touched the 1.31400 handle in yesterdays session but now trades slightly lower around the 1.30700 level. It looks to me as though the EURUSD pair is on course to the 1.32-1.33 in the short term, and it is also interesting to note that all the analysts calling for 1.16-1 levels on the pair are no where to be seen these days. One of the big stories of the week has been the JPY weakness off the back of Kurodas aggressive monetary easing policies. The EURJPY pair broke through the 130 handle and traded above the 131.100 handle for a brief period, however there has been some EUR weakness overnight and in the early morning session so the pair trades currently at 129.900. One thing we will be keeping a close eye on is the USDJPY we were all expecting to see a test of the 100 level but we fell just short of this a few times during the week, At the time of writing the pair trades below 99.300 so a test of this level is unlikely today but we expect to see the barrier broken in the short term.
In conclusion, the play all week has been to buy the dips and trading has been relatively straight forward however I would be a bit weary today adopting that approach as we could see some profit taking going into the weekend. Things in North Korea look to be getting serious and we have the European leaders meeting in Europe so lets just take a cautious stance in today's trading session and wait for opportunities.

Thursday, 11 April 2013

Breakfast Blog

Good Morning and Top of the Risk ON morning!
                                                                           We got 1576, in fact we got 1588! The S&P 500 broke the 2007 high. It feels like the start of one of those cycles where every second sentence will be "fresh high, record high, highest since". In an up and down day with a few comical errors including the release of the FOMC minutes early at 2 GMT instead of 2 eastern. The FOMC were a negative for the U.S. Dollar and for stocks- they sounded like a big part of the FOMC was ready to pull the trigger on tapering but they hardly caused a blip. The USD/JPY reversed immediately higher after a 50 pip droop and continued higher immediately after the meeting, making it to within a few pips of the magical 100 once the 99.75 barrier had been taken out. Once the U.S. Market opened the S&P blasted through the 2007 highs finally erasing the Credit Crisis.
EUR/USD was bid early in the European session having broken as high as 1.3122 but huge sell offers capped anymore upsided and it drifted lower and was playing defence during the afternoon, But after 5 days of gains this short pullback be a breath of fresh air for the pair.
European Stocks had one of their best days in years with the outperformer being the Spanish Ibex, up over 3% and the German DAX up over 2%. This seems to be a flow dynamic, with money flowing out of Japan and into the better yielding European Debt Markets, these lower yields have given the European Stocks a boost. However, A strong Euro is exactly what Europe doesn't need at the moment and it is only a matter of time until the Equity markets will start to react negatively to the Strong Euro and start crying out for some Central Bank policy changes to make them more competitive.
The May meeting is too soon to see a cut from Draghi unless we get some terrible European Data next week  but Potentially in June if the Euro continues to appreciate at this rate he may have no other choice even though rates are virtually as low as they can go.
Another sparse Economic Calendar today, we just saw French and German CPI's which came in slightly better then expected. The Only Tier 1 Data we have from the States is in the Form of the weekly Initial Jobless claims. Another soft Reading may give the Euro a slight boost but any reaction from these numbers is normally faded and comes back to where it was prior to the announcement.
Some good levels to look out for today on the EURUSD are 1.3040 downside, this was the Asian Low, Topside we have offers at 1.31 and much bigger ones at 1.3113-3120. Remember 1.3113 is the 38.2% retracement of the 2013 drop from 37.10 to 27.50 and is an important technical level. The EURUSD is in a strong uptrend and if it can get through these offers, there is not much in the form of strong resistance until 1.32.
Good Luck in The Markets

Wednesday, 10 April 2013

Good Morning Traders
Yesterday we saw trading adopting its usual rhetoric of a struggling European session followed by an aggressive US session. For the large part of the European session we saw all asset classes struggle to make moves to the upside and US futures started the day in the negative. It wasn't long before we saw the 'Buy the Dips' mentality across the market and the equity markets moved higher testing the previous highs. The Dow was trading above the 14700 handle and the SPX trading above the 1570 handle. Coupled with this move to the upside we saw US Dollar weakness and there were some big swings in the FX market with the US dollar losing ground against some of its major pairs.
As we noted on Monday we are now in earnings season in the US and so far so good earnings have beaten analysts expectations. There was a slight cause of worry for investors as 75% of the companies listed in the SPX had revised a negative earnings outlook, and it was seen as an opportunity to take some money off the table and lock in some profits. While some saw this as an opportunity to take money off the table we have seen continued pressure from retail investors who have missed out on the big equity moves to enter the market. This is a particularly dangerous game entering at these levels as we have come a long way in a short space of time and there are calls for a 5-10% correction over the coming weeks. I don't think that earnings in the US have enough power to be the catalyst for this correction we would need something a bit more substantial to get the correction under way, maybe some developments from North Korea or some significant data from the EU, until that happens we should continue to ride the wave created by the FED and as long as they keep their finger on the button markets will inevitably move higher.
Today the FED will release minutes of its March meeting when policy makers left the pace of bind purchases unchanged.
In the FX market we saw all the real volatility yesterday. The EURUSD pair traded down around the 1.30 handle during the European session but we saw the pair moving higher and tripping stops now trading above the 1.31 level. There is said to be significant orders above the 1.31200 level so a push through here could see an aggressive short squeeze.
In terms of the EURJPY pair we have seen the 130 level taken out, just to put into context the pair was trading down at 119 just seven trading days ago, the continued JPY weakness off the back of Kuroda's aggressive monetary easing campaign. The USDJPY is doing its best to take on the 100 figure but it has come into some large barriers around the 99.45 level but we do expect to see the 100 handle breached during the trading week.

Happy Trading
@lowKeyCapital

Tuesday, 9 April 2013

Breakfast Blog

Good Morning,
                       Europe's markets look set to open higher once again this morning as they look to claw back the ground from last week's sell off, helped in no small part by another wall of money. This time from japan in a search for a return as yields on JGB's plunge, while the Japanese currency has also dropped, pushing to within 50 pips of 100 for the first time since May 2009. There appeared to be some demand for European Government bonds, in particular peripheral bond with higher yields with Spain and Italy seeing their yields slide back despite the dire economic outlook in both economies, while yields in France fell as well in spite of the poor outlook there. It would appear that the the prospect of the implied backstop of Draghi's OMT program is prompting a much more "risk on" attitude amongst yield starved investors. Time will eventually tell whether this is a wise move, given Europe's continuing problems.
The American stock market rallied yesterday to close the gap from the NFP's on Friday helped by The JPY weakness and extremely thin volume. Yesterday was actually the lowest Non-holiday trading day and Lowest average trade size. This shows that no big investors or funds want to go long the market at these lofty levels as a sizable pull-back is inevitable and all heavy volume trades have come when selling the market recently. Home-builders were the best performers yesterday, up 2% on no news what so ever. Copper and oil rose 0.9%, the USD gained 0.25% broadly and the Vix held around the 13.5 mark.
The EUR/USD was in a range between 1.2990 and 1.3035 yesterday and during the overnight Asian session we saw it test higher to highs of 1.3066 but is on offer this morning as it is nearing the 1.30 handle as I type. The economic calendar is very sparse for European Data this morning and it would have been an ideal opportunity for it to rally against the Dollar with the FOMC minutes coming up tomorrow night. A New York think tank published a report yesterday on a very Dovish Minutes from this meeting, with the Fed not wanting to taper or reduce Asset purchases until 2 very strong jobs reports in a row were seen together.
This would essentially mean it will not be until Q3 or Q4 this year that we might potentially see a pull back in purchases because the Summer Months have been notoriously poor for Jobs numbers.
We have heard reports of good bids in the 1.2970-1.2980 level in the EURUSD and topside supply starting at 1.3050 all the way up to the 1.31 handle.  Looking at the Equities, the range in the S&P 500 we have been following is from 1538 (March low) and 1573(year to date intraday trading high). These will both provide good support and resistance levels to trade off.
Good luck in the Markets./