Good Morning,
An incredible weak of volatility for all asset classes; European and American Stocks, Commodities, Currencies and the lowest T note yield registered since 2013.
Last Friday Gold breached a very important technical level at 1525, which was a weekly triple bottom. The break of this level started a wave of heavy volume selling, together with rumours of leveraged funds being margin called caused a complete commodity sell off with Silver, Copper and Oil getting in on the act. Gold reached a bottom at 1324 on Monday evening where it bottomed, important support comes in at 1301, and a break of this level will inevitably lead to further declines. Looking at the Equity Markets, The German Dax broke through the 100 day moving average yesterday on Rumours of a German Sovereign downgrade. This downgrade came in the form of a small ratings agency called Egan Jones. The Dax lost over 200 points yesterday, closing below 7500. Strong support comes in for the Dax around the 7450 level (previous highs) and at 7365(200 Day MA).
The S&P 500 has been correcting heavily this week after making new all time highs last week and nearly reaching the 1600 level. It broke through intermediate trendline support at 1557 and reached lows of 1542. Important support comes in at 1537 which is a double bottom and the March lows. A break of this level will lead too a deeper correction towards 1500.
EUR/USD had a 200 pip rally on the back of bad news on Tuesday and then sold off 200 pips yesterday on the back of comments from ECB's Jens Wiedmann opening the door to potential rate cuts either in May or June, The negative sentiment in the Markets also added to the Euro's sell off, Giving the Yen some strength as traders moved money to the safe haven of the Japanese Currency.
American T-Notes also printed a 2013 record low yield at 1.67% as rumours of black box selling of E-Mini contracts and a Buy program of US Ten Year's was noted on Tuesday. Pimco's Bill Gross also came out stating he liked treasuries at these levels. This would lead us to believe that the Equity Market will likely correct sooner rather then later as Investors will put money into Defensive stocks and Bonds until they can Buy the Equity Market back at more attractive levels.
An altogether extremely volatile week for a number of reasons. We believe there will be a lack of direction in all Instuments for the coming weeks, so price action will likely be up and down with big swings in the Equity Market. Best option is to enter the Market with an open mind everyday and take a position on the basis of the Mood of the market and at the extreme's of the range that will likely prove strong Support or Resistance levels.
Good Luck in the Markets.
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