Good Morning Traders
Well Friday's NFP data was poor and it left a lot of analysts in shock, with the headline number of 88,000k coming in well below the expected 190,000k of new jobs added. Despite this poor reading the US economy still remains one of the few economies where the economic data is still porting numbers well above Europe and the UK. One thing traders and investors alike should take from this poor reading, is that the FED is likely to push back talk of the tapering of QE towards the end of this year. This week kicks off earning season, so all eyes will now be looking at whether the US equity markets are too high relative to valuations and future earnings estimates. Closer to home we have growth forecasts from  the French and Spanish governments both expected to be revised down from previous expectations. In Italy we are likely to see the new government fiasco put on hold until the summer, as a new election can only take place after the election of a new president which is due to be rolled out in may, the markets continue to remain remarkably relaxed, reflected by the sharp decline in bond yields on Friday. We are likely to see some headlines creep up in relation to the Portuguese bailout, as we saw the rejection of the €1.3bn EU austerity measures by the Portuguese government.
In terms of the FX market, we saw the EURUSD pair move back above the 200MDA off the back of the poor NFP, sentiment has changed now for the EUR and we should look to move higher as long as we trade above the 1.2875 handle. If we can hold this level we will be targeting 1.3040 (100MDA) and potentially 1.3170. In terms of cable the bullish engulfing candle we saw a few weeks ago keeps the outlook positive and a push beyond 1.5230 targets a move higher to the 1.5420 level. I think at these levels we may see some sellers come into the market looking to short this pair on the back of Carney entering the frame this summer  and he is expected to increase the monetary easing policy of the BOE.
In conclusion, there is plenty of news out this week so expect some wild swings and keep on top of that economic calender so you know what to expect and when, other than that happy trading.

@lowkeyCapital