Good Morning Traders
These next two days could be potentially the most volatile days of the trading month as we will be waiting to hear from the ECB and the BOE on Interest rate decisions early this afternoon, we have the NFP tomorrow from the US and on top of all this we have the BOJ governor Kuroda meeting for the first time of his leadership campaign. Overnight in the Asian trading session we saw a big move in the USDJPY pair as investors are expecting Kuroda to adopt an aggressive monetary easing programme in an effort to achieve his 2% inflation target, At the time of writing the pair sits at 95.40 and we should be looking at 100 as a target over the medium/long term. The graph below will give you a graphical representation of the big move we saw overnight.
We saw a report out this morning from Citi bank which stated that the 'fair value' of the EURUSD pair for the moment is 1.26, we have seen the significant move to the downside in the pair over the last couple of months and we would be hoping that the previous resistance levels below 1.30 can hold for the pair, but any additional negative sentiment from the eurozone will inevitably cause a move to the downside targeting this 1.26 level. We will be keeping a close eye on the ECB interest rate decision this afternoon, and we are not expecting to see any change from the .25% existing rate, but Draghi might drop a few hints of a rate change over the coming weeks and traders will need to be prepared for the volatile swings that a statement of this nature could bring with it.
Across the water in the US we saw bad economic data (ADP: 158,000) which caused a sell off in the US equity markets as traders are expecting a lower than expected NFP number tomorrow. At one stage the SPX was down 20 points but selling was met by buying power and the index recovered with a strong bounce and it looks to have stabilised this morning.
In terms of advice for traders today, we would be looking to sit on the sidelines as we know the dangers of trading these big news releases, swings can be aggressive and we like the JPY play against the USD and the EUR but we would wait to buy on weakness as the big move came overnight (Seen Below).
Happy Trading
@lowkeycapital
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